Drought and floods have hit Syria's farmers hard this year, leaving the harvest
in disarray and threatening up to a fifth of annual production in an agriculture
sector that accounts for a quarter of the country's Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), according to government figures.
"The weather has been bad this year, and a lot of crops have suffered," said
Mounir, a farmer in the countryside near Damascus.
The Ministry of Agriculture says agriculture was hit by drought during the
winter, followed by recent flooding, leaving many crops un-harvestable this
month.
The poor yield has drawn attention to the country's agricultural sector and the
need to intensify agricultural reform, especially as weather conditions may
become more erratic with the threat posed by global warming.
"According to some reports, the effects of this weather will negatively impact
agricultural production by 20 percent," Haitham al-Ashkar of the National
Agricultural Policy Centre (NAPC), a government-affiliated agricultural body,
told IRIN. "It's not a disaster yet, but it's a bad situation."
Wheat output is predicted to fall to 4.7 million metric tonnes (mt) in 2007
compared to an expected yield of 5.3 million mt, and down on 4.9 million mt in
2006, according to official figures.
Barley is expected to fall to 965,000 mt from 1.2 million mt last year. The
summer cotton harvest - which endured a poor 2006 when production fell to
686,000 mt from 1 million mt in 2005 - is also expected to perform badly.
For the Syrian economy, in which the agricultural sector directly employs up to
30 per cent of the population, the setback has been considerable.
Self-sufficient
However, while the sector-wide decreases are significant, analysts are playing
down the immediate prospects of a crisis.
"I don't think the impact is as significant as we may think. The wheat crop is
lower but not dramatically lower," said Jihad Yaziji, a Damascus-based
economist. "Syria is one of the very few countries in the Arab world that is
still self-sufficient in most agricultural products and which is a net
exporter."
Despite the poor 2007 output, Syria will maintain sufficiency in most key
strategic crops, except barley. Domestic wheat demand stands at around 3.8
million mt per year, a figure that will be met despite the shortfall. The main
loser will be Syria's export revenues, especially the important cash-crop
cotton.
The poor harvest has drawn attention to Syria's heavily subsidised agro-sector
and technologically out-dated agricultural techniques.
"Government subsidies make it easier to develop the sector, but there are some
negative effects like the inefficient use of resources," said al-Ashkar,
pointing to the need for crop rotation and the inefficient use of water.
Irrigation
Despite significant water resources from the River Euphrates and Assad Dam and
increasing support from central government, farmers still depend on rain water
for irrigation, leaving them vulnerable to fluctuating weather. Rural northeast
Syria has long suffered the economic effects of poor rainfall, with unemployment
levels among agricultural workers increasing.
While irrigation reforms, such as the use of drip irrigation rather than rivers
and wells, are being introduced as part of the government's plan to increase
irrigated land by 38 percent in the next 10 years, progress is slow, according
to local economists.
The latest NAPC figures show that of the 1,425,811 hectares of total irrigated
land in Syria in 2005, a little under one fifth was cultivated using modern
irrigation techniques, an increase of 4 percent from 2004, but a year-on-year
average increase from 2002 through 2005 of just 2 percent per year.
Land fragmentation
Flat-rate charges to farmers for use of mains water, rather than charges per
quantity used, also encourage inefficiency, as does hereditary land ownership,
which results in an abundance of ever smaller holdings divided between ever more
family members.
"Syria is facing serious problems with land," said Dr Salwa Amber, a
representative for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Syria.
"With fragmentation you can't build up a strong and sound foundation for
agriculture."
Moves to improve efficiency
The government has initiated a series of projects aimed at improving the
efficiency of the sector.
In the 10th Five Year Plan, initiated in 2006, the Ministry of Agriculture
launched a US$420 million irrigation project to move the sector towards modern
irrigation techniques. Agreements have been reached with several international
organisations.
A UN Development Programme (UNDP) project commissioned by the Syrian Ministry of
Agriculture and the State Planning Commission is due to be completed in October
2007 when it will present proposals to the government on reform of subsidies.
"Subsides started without a basic study on the market so we want to see whether
these subsidies are being given to the right people," said Mohammed Battah of
the UNDP. "It's a study to see what other crops we could produce or what crops
would be more efficient."
The Syrian ministries of agriculture and irrigation recently signed a $58
million agreement with the International Fund for Agricultural Development
(IFAD) aimed at boosting water efficiency in the three northeastern provinces of
Deir Ezzour, Hassake and Raqqa.
"It will be used for water usage efficiency for which agriculture is the main
consumer, including the distribution of modern agricultural systems as well as
investment for the rural poor in micro enterprises," said Hamid Abdouli, IFAD's
country programme manager for Syria.
But while the government is keen to push ahead with reforms, their impact will
only be seen in the medium-term, leaving agriculture and those who depend on it,
under continued strain.
"Next year?" mused al-Ashkar, "we don't know. It all depends on the weather."
IRIN.
